Susan Tuz
Updated 2:31 pm, Thursday, February 20, 2014
Given enrollment projections to 2023, the chances for Region 12 survival is now an open question.Voters in Bridgewater, Roxbury and Washington will have to consider the school district's future as they go to the polls soon to decide whether to amend the regional plan.
At stake, too, will be whether to approve the construction of a consolidated grades K-5 school on the Shepaug Valley Middle/High School campus in Washington.
A final design plan for such a consolidated school with cost projection may be approved by the Board of Education at its Monday, Feb. 24 meeting.
A referendum question and date is scheduled for approval at the board's March 3 meeting.
Enrollment projections to 2023 predict enrollment will have declined to 460 students region-wide. On Oct. 1, 2013, student enrollment in the region was 796 students.
The last time enrollment in the three towns was below 800 students was about 1957, more than a dozen years before the regional school district was formed, according to Peter Prowda, the statistician who developed the projections.
"Is the forecast too severe?" Prowda asked. "In the five years from 2004 to 2008 (this fall's kindergarten through fourth graders), births in the region's three towns averaged 49."
"Births in the 2009 to 2013 period will average only 38," he added. "This practically guarantees a decline."
That said, Prowda noted it is critical to remember a projection is just a moving forward of recent trends.
The key assumption, he added, is those conditions would persist. It does not predict when economic conditions might change, he said.
He recommends using his projections as "a starting point for local planning."
Board of Education chairman Jim Hirschfield agreed with Prowda's caveat about using the projection solely as talking points.
"They gave me concern as far as thinking about the region in the long term. But do we know that they're correct?," Hirschfield said of the projections. "I hear a lot of things."
"A fundamental decision will be made in this region as things come to a critical point," he said. "A vote needs to be taken. It's up to the voters to decide."
Prowda looked at the region's enrollment over a 44 year period from 1970 to 2013 to give an historic perspective.
In 1970, enrollment was 1,222, peaking at 1,247 in 1974.
In 2003, the enrollment was 1,169. That figure capped a 14-year growth period for the region.
"Region 12's growth cycle in the 1990s was on par with the state-wide growth cycle," Prowda said. "Its decline cycle of the 2000s has been much steeper than the state's cycle to date."
For Bridgewater mother Julie Stuart, co-chairman of Save Our School, a group dedicated to save Burnham School, it must be "counter intuitive in most people's minds that you don't build a new, larger school faced with such projections."
"Demographics have gotten to the point where our town is working to attract families," Stuart said.
"For years, residents wanted the quality of life and our school here in Bridgewater to be a well kept secret."
"Now we've started a campaign that will be funded by the town to bring people into town," she said.
"There are parents to the south who like the small classes that Burnham School has to offer."
stuz@newstimes.com; 860-355-7322
Questions future of Shepaug middle/high school
Published 12:20 am, Wednesday, February 19, 2014
To the Editor:
At the Feb. 11 information meeting in Roxbury, a number of points were stressed by the superintendent of schools and Greg Cava, the chairman of the Region 12 facilities committee.
1) The student population is decreasing rapidly.
2) The forecast for the next ten years shows significant enrollment decreases.
3) The superintendent stated the demographer's recent forecasts have been very accurate.
4) Greg Cava stated "people are voting with their feet," implying parents are pulling their students from the public schools.
A few observations can be made from the student population summary distributed by the superintendent that evening.
Today, 23 percent of the students in the region do not attend the public schools.
In 10 years the middle school is forecast to have 112 students, a 44 percent decrease.
In 10 years, the high school is forecast to have 161 students, a 45 percent decrease.
In 10 years, the elementary schools are forecast to have 188 students, a 35 percent decrease.
This is a serious situation.
Can we continue to operate a middle/high school that was built to handle 1,200 students, when we will soon have less than 300 students using the building?
Bridgewater
